Narratives are never as straightforward as they may appear. One era does not yield easily to another. What constitutes an era changes over time. While history is happening it’s often hard to make sense of it; patterns seem to emerge that, from the perspective of 20 years later are meaningless, or culs-de-sac. That seems particularly true this season. As the Champions League reaches its quarter-final stage this coming week, it feels that one age has ended and another has yet to materialise.
The past was a simpler place. First there was the age of dominance by Real Madrid and Benfica, teams from the capitals of Iberian nations under right-wing dictatorships, packed with great individuals. Then came systematisation, catenaccio and the Italian ascendancy, followed, with a brief period of crossover, by the era of domination by the northern European industrial powers, skipping swiftly over Celtic and Manchester United to the Dutch and Total Football and then Bayern Munich. Then came the long period of English superiority before the Heysel ban, after which everything gets more complicated.
There were the one-off champions – Porto, Steaua, PSV Eindhoven, Red Star Belgrade, Barcelona and Marseille – around the mighty Milan of Arrigo Sacchi, who in 1990 were the last side successfully to defend the title for 27 years. As the Champions League began, and began making the rich richer, the nature of the pattern changed. As increasing number of sides were admitted from the bigger leagues, so the level of competition increased. It became harder and harder for one club or one country to dominate.
There was a period when it was clear Italian sides were the teams to beat, but that resulted in more defeats in finals for Serie A clubs than successes. Then Real Madrid won three titles in five years. Porto beating Monaco in the 2004 final in 2004 felt like the end of an era, the last time a team from outside the big four European leagues won the competition.
What has followed has been the era of the super-clubs, 20 years in which the prize has been passed around nine teams from four countries. Include losing finalists and you only add five more clubs and one country. Real Madrid, with six titles in that time, have clearly been the dominant club, while the Premier League, with six titles shared out, has probably underperformed given its financial dominance. This is not about the domination of a single country but the domination of capital. Finance is all.
Beyond that, it’s very hard to isolate more precise themes, although there is a clear irony in that the spell from Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona beating Manchester United in the 2009 final to the present day has been the most theory-driven period of football’s history, and yet the most successful side has been essentially pragmatic, a team based on brilliant individuals with a remarkable knack of doing something brilliant just when it is needed.
It was the era of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, but it was also the era, at least more recently, of huge swings and turnarounds. Which made for great entertainment, but perhaps suggested teams unused to defending in domestic leagues in which they were dominant finding themselves unable to scrap and shut games down when they came under pressure.
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Messi and Ronaldo have gone now, the group stage has a new format and the goals per game ratio has dipped – after 12 seasons in which goals per game in the knockout stages dipped below three once, it has been below three in each of the past four years. A new age is coming into being, may perhaps already have begun, but what will it look like?
In one obvious way, it seems a lot like the old age, in that there’s every chance Real Madrid win a 16th Champions League, their seventh in 12 seasons, despite an unconvincing campaign – they lost three times in the group stage – and, more remarkably, despite consistently lobbying against the Champions League and its structures, and being at war with their own federation. This feels a very modern fable, the serial winners sickened by being unable to win quite enough, or at least lucratively enough, the establishment outraged by challenge.
Arsenal’s chances of upsetting them were diminished by Gabriel’s hamstring injury, but they have the best defence in the Premier League and that, plus the return of Bukayo Saka and his delivery from corners, gives them at least a glimmer of a chance. The other Premier League hope, Aston Villa, have enjoyed their European campaign but neither they nor Arsenal seem on the verge of starting a dynasty.
There could be a first-ever clásico final, which would be enticing both from a historical and footballing point of view, although Barcelona are also at war with the Spanish federation and are one of the other holdouts against Uefa in the campaign for a Super League. It’s hard to imagine Dortmund, after their miserable season, presenting much opposition. Bayern have dominated other German opposition, but there have been times, notably against Feyenoord and Celtic, when they have seemed inexplicably slow. Inter, meanwhile, have gradually improved over the season to top Serie A.
Which leaves Paris Saint-Germain, who have developed radically since a tame defeat by Arsenal in the group stage, and beat Liverpool with verve and energy. Victory for them would be the first for a league outside the big four for two decades and would represent vindication for their move away from celebrity. That leaves the potential for a semi-final, between PSG, tool of the Qatari state, suddenly representing a progressive team-based ethic, and the old money of Real Madrid and their star system.
But there is no clear pattern. Madrid appear the default winners but there are possibilities for a mix of familiar big names, plus one upstart newcomer. The environment is different, but as around the turn of the century, there is a slightly messy sense of an age coming into being – which reflects the scrappiness of the Premier League this season, itself probably a function of accumulated fatigue amid the absurd new calendar.
It’s likely Real Madrid will win the Champions League again because that’s just what happens. But there is a chance amid the uncertainty of the interregnum for a less-fancied side to nick a fragment of history for themselves.